General Sector-Specific Conditions

Market researchers at Gartner expect a semiconductor recovery in 2010. They foresee global silicon-wafer demand (by surface area sold) climbing a good 23%, thereby returning to the 2008 level. Gartner forecasts a further increase of about 9% in 2011. According to the experts, sales revenue for semiconductor silicon wafers will grow too – namely by a good 22% in 2010 and around 12% in 2011.

The EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) predicts strong photovoltaic-market growth for both 2010 and 2011. Newly installed photovoltaic capacity should rise from 6.8 gigawatt (GW) in 2009 to 10.8 GW in 2010 and to 13.8 GW in 2011. The EPIA expects particularly marked growth rates in the USA. For the first time, newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2010 could be higher there than in Germany. From 2011, the EPIA estimates that newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China, too, will expand considerably – to 600 MW. Polysilicon output will continue to grow over the next few years, since WACKER and other manufacturers are expanding their production capacities. In 2010, global polysilicon output is set to rise to over 100,000 metric tons, which could lead to overcapacities in the market.

Worldwide, the chemical industry will see sales and production figures grow in 2010 compared to 2009, though the recovery will be slow. According to the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), German chemical production will increase 5%, and total sector sales around 6%. Capacity utilization will nevertheless remain unsatisfactory. The VCI anticipates major opportunities for chemicals in emerging economies. China and India, in particular, will see demand rise in key sectors during the coming years. WACKER prepared for this trend early on and will further expand its production capacities over the next two years, particularly in China.

The global construction industry should experience a moderate recovery in 2010 according to Global Insight (a market research institute), whose forecast matches WACKER POLYMERS’ expectations. Worldwide, Global Insight predicts 0.4% growth for construction in 2010. The market will then see stronger growth in 2011. The main momentum here comes from infrastructure projects fueled by government stimulus programs and by countries’ infrastructure investment needs. Regionally, growth in India and China will be particularly strong – and both WACKER POLYMERS and WACKER SILICONES intend to profit from it. 2009 saw these divisions opening their own technical competence center in India. WACKER already has two such centers in China. Since our Nanjing site came on stream in 2009, we have been able to supply the region’s customers with dispersions and dispersible polymer powder directly from China. Worldwide, Global Insight expects the construction industry to grow 2.2% on average by 2013.