Central Risk Areas

Defining the Probability and Impact of Risk Occurrence

We have defined categories to describe the probability that risks we identify will occur. This provides a framework for understanding our assessment of individual areas of risk. In percentage terms, our categories define the range of probability as follows:

  • Unlikely: under 25 percent
  • Possible: 25 – 75 percent
  • Likely: over 75 percent

We also use categories to describe how the occurrence of the risks listed might impact the Group’s earnings, net assets and financial position. We assess the possible effect on earnings using the net method, i. e. after taking appropriate countermeasures, such as establishing provisions or hedging. The following categories define the ranges:

  • Low: up to €25 million
  • Medium: up to €100 million
  • High: over €100 million

The following table shows our estimation of the probability of risks and of how the occurrence of those risks might impact the Group’s earnings, net assets and financial position. The statements refer to the forecast period, thus to fiscal 2018.

Probability and Possible Impact of Our Risks in 2018

 

Risk/Category

 

Probability

 

Possible Impact

 

 

 

 

 

Overall economic risks

 

Unlikely

 

Medium

Sales-market risks

 

 

 

 

Chemicals

 

Unlikely

 

Medium

Polysilicon

 

Possible

 

High

Procurement-market risks

 

Possible

 

Medium

Investment risks

 

Unlikely

 

Medium

Production and environmental risks

 

Unlikely

 

Medium

Financial risks

 

 

 

 

Credit risks

 

Unlikely

 

Low

Currency-exchange and interest-rate risks

 

Possible

 

Medium

Liquidity risks

 

Unlikely

 

Low

Pensions

 

Possible

 

Medium

Legal risks

 

Unlikely

 

Low

Regulatory risks

 

 

 

 

Energy transition in Germany

 

Possible

 

Low

Polysilicon trade restrictions

 

Possible

 

High

New regulations for production processes and products

 

Likely

 

Low

IT risks

 

Unlikely

 

Medium

Personnel-related risks

 

Unlikely

 

Low

External risks

 

Unlikely

 

Low