General Sector-Specific Conditions

The semiconductor industry will decline in 2009. The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) forecasts a sales drop in that sector of 5.6% in 2009. The primary reason for this is weak demand for cellphones and personal computers, which currently account for 60% of sales. In its most recent analysis of the silicon-wafer market, Gartner Dataquest (a market research institute) is forecasting a drop in sales volumes and prices in 2009. According to Gartner, surface-area sold will drop 16% in 2009, but is expected to increase 14% in 2010.

The Swiss bank Sarasin is expecting photovoltaic-sector growth of 17%, thus weaker than in prior years. This is mainly due to the fact that the general situation has changed in Spain and Germany – two key markets. In 2009, feed-in payments in Germany are going to fall. In Spain, the installation of new solar modules was restricted to 500 MW per year. New solar parks account for 300 of this 500 MW, and roof modules for 200 MW. Installation of new photovoltaic capacity is set to rise to 4.8 GW in 2009. EPIA analysts are forecasting up to 5.2 GW of installed capacity. Polysilicon production will continue to rise in the years to come, since WACKER and other manufacturers are expanding their production capacities. How large this capacity increase will be is very difficult to estimate, since many projects have been announced in the past and then not always actually realized. Sarasin expects that the new polysilicon quantities will enable the production of 13.3 GW of c-SI-based solar cells in 2010. Average annual growth of 50% is forecast until 2012.

The chemical industry will experience a weaker trend worldwide in 2009. According to the German chemical industry association (VCI), global chemical production will indeed grow – by 0.5% – though chemical companies in Europe, Japan and North America are nevertheless suffering from the weak industrial trend. According to the VCI, German chemical industry production in 2009 will decline 3.5% following four years of strong growth. Despite the dampened prospects, the chemical industry is expected to continue to grow in the years to come. This development will be primarily fueled by rising demand from key purchasing sectors in China. Chinese industry is expected to average 5% growth annually until 2015.

The construction-sector slowdown intensified due to the housing-market crisis. The weakness will be felt in all regions worldwide in 2009. Although slower, Asian growth will continue. In the established markets of the USA and Europe, the trend will range from subdued to declining. Global Insight, a market research institute, expects the construction industry to still grow 3.9% in 2009. In the medium term, we foresee a market recovery – due in part to infrastructure and renovation programs (thermal insulation).

According to German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers’ Association (ZVEI) estimates, only two areas will continue to grow in 2009: industrial electronics and automotive electronics. All other sectors, whether data equipment, consumer electronics or IT, will struggle with declining sales in 2009.