Underlying Economic Conditions
For 2020, economists expect global economic growth to be at last year’s level or below it. Downside risks stem not only from an escalation in US-China trade tensions, but also from mounting geopolitical concerns. On top of this comes uncertainty due to the coronavirus. Both the IMF and OECD expect the virus to slow the world economy this year.
The OECD forecasts a prolonged period of weaker global growth. It considers any recovery in the eurozone to be highly unlikely in the next two years.
Our scenario, based on the latest economic forecasts, is for the world economy to continue expanding in 2020 and 2021.