Central Risk Areas

Defining the Probability and Impact of Risk Occurrence

We have defined categories to describe the probability that risks we identify will occur. This provides a framework for understanding our assessment of individual areas of risk. In percentage terms, our categories define the range of probability as follows:

• Unlikely: under 25 percent
• Possible: 25–75 percent
• Likely: over 75 percent

We also use categories to describe how the occurrence of the risks listed might affect the Group’s earnings, net assets or financial position. We assess the possible effect on earnings using the net method, i.e. after taking appropriate countermeasures, such as establishing provisions or hedging. The following categories define the ranges:

• Low: up to €25 million
• Medium: up to €100 million
• High: over €100 million

The table shows our estimation of the probability of risks and of how the occurrence of those risks might affect the Group’s earnings, net assets or financial position. The statements refer to the forecast period, thus to 2020.

Overall Economic Risks

Scenario: Economic slowdown.

Impact on WACKER: Production-capacity utilization drops, specific production costs rise, and the Group’s sales and earnings decline.

Measures: We counter this risk by continuously monitoring economic trends in our key sales markets. Should the economy start slowing, we take early precautions to quickly adjust production capacities, resources and inventories to customer demand. In such a case, we concentrate capacity utilization on production locations with the best cost position, for example.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Although economists forecast further global growth for 2020, they scaled back their expectations markedly during the reporting year, given the mounting risks to the world economy, particularly trade disputes.

At present, we see no concrete signs that economic activity will diverge substantially from the experts’ projections. Due to the heightened risks, though, we consider it possible that the world economy will fall short of current expectations for 2020. Should global economic activity prove weaker than currently anticipated, this would have a medium impact on WACKER’s earnings.

Sales-Market Risks

Scenario 1: Overcapacity at our chemical divisions.

Impact on WACKER: Price and volume pressure on our products.

Measures: We minimize this risk by adjusting our production capacity and by ensuring plant utilization through volume control and the intense cultivation of growth markets. It remains our goal to increase the share of cyclically resilient product lines in our portfolio and to rank among the global leaders there.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: We expect the risk of overcapacity to remain basically unchanged for our products in 2020. At WACKER POLYMERS, we see overcapacity for dispersions and dispersible polymer powders in Asia. Despite this, we expect plant utilization to be high. In silicones, demand returned to normal in the reporting year after the strong rise of 2018. For 2020, WACKER SILICONES expects supply and demand to be balanced, with plant utilization remaining high as a result. At the same time, we anticipate lower average prices for standard silicones and certain specialties.

Generally, we consider it possible that specific areas of our chemical business will face overcapacity and resultant price pressure. We have already factored this possibility into our planning and forecasts. Any effects that go beyond this would have a medium impact on Group earnings.

Scenario 2: Overcapacity and very low prices for solar-grade polysilicon; difficult market conditions due to a rollback of government incentive programs; and the tight financial situation of many customers.

Impact on WACKER: Volume risks arise if the photovoltaic market is negatively affected by excessive and hurried cuts to government solar incentives or by limitations on new PV capacity. As for overcapacity, it may pressure margins through intense price competition. Both factors could lower sales and earnings.

Measures: We counter this risk by continuously improving our cost positions and by optimizing our product and customer portfolio in line with market developments, for example by expanding our market share for semiconductor-grade polysilicon. We respond to customers’ liquidity problems by demanding collateral.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: In all probability, the consolidation process in the solar industry will continue in 2020. As long as this trend persists and global production capacities exceed market demand, polysilicon prices are likely to remain volatile and under pressure. Such a trend has been factored into our planning and forecasts. Should demand for solar-grade polysilicon clearly exceed supply, this would presumably lift WACKER POLYSILICON’s earnings. Conversely, a slump in demand for WACKER’s solar-grade polysilicon would probably have a high impact on earnings in this business. In our view, the risk of prices falling is possible.

Procurement-Market Risks

Scenario: Higher raw-material and energy prices; bottlenecks in the supply of certain raw materials; risks of tariffs.

Impact on WACKER: Earnings dampened by higher raw-material and energy prices. Any supply bottlenecks could lead to longer customer delivery times and volume losses.

Measures: For strategic raw materials and energy, we prepare systematic annual procurement plans, which include an evaluation of the procurement risk. For any procurement risk that is classed as relevant, we take appropriate countermeasures where possible. Such countermeasures include: long-term supply contracts with partners; structured procurement policies for multiple suppliers under contracts of differing lengths; a wider supplier base; a higher level of safety stocks. We reduce our dependence on external suppliers by means of partial backward integration, for example in producing silicon metal and vinyl acetate.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: WACKER’s good position in energy and raw-material procurement enables us to manage risks effectively during economic upturns and downturns. If the world economy were to weaken significantly, our purchasing terms for key raw materials would allow us to adjust contractual volumes flexibly and – wherever possible – to benefit from price decreases through appropriate pricing models. Should global growth become unexpectedly strong, our volume guarantees are so extensive that we do not see any major risks to raw-material security. Prices can rise markedly in such situations. But experience has shown that we then have opportunities to compensate, at least partially, for additional costs by increasing the selling prices of our own products. Additionally, purchasing prices for certain raw materials might be affected by punitive tariffs. Such import tariffs exist, for example, for silicon metal exported from China to Europe and the USA.

Under current German law, energy-intensive companies are partially exempt from paying various levies and surcharges. WACKER, too, benefits from these rules. Any restriction on the exemption rules would significantly reduce the competitiveness of specific business activities. In general, energy price trends (wholesale prices, infrastructure costs and ancillary costs) will remain heavily dependent on how German and European policymakers organize the energy transition.

On balance, we anticipate slightly lower raw-material prices for 2020, given the slowdown in economic momentum. But we expect electricity costs to stay at a high level. Such a scenario has been factored into our planning. Any possible price rises beyond this would probably have a medium impact on Group earnings.

Investment Risks

Scenario: Bad investments, higher-than-expected investment costs, postponed plant start-ups, deterioration of original market projections, and taking on risks from investments in joint ventures and associates.

Impact on WACKER: Bad investments incur costs for idle capacity and impair assets and equity investments. The possible effect on earnings could be substantial. Higher investment costs mean higher cash outflows and will lead to higher expenses for depreciation/amortization and impairments in our operating result. Postponed start-ups expose us to the risk of being unable to fulfill supply contracts and of posting lowers sales and earnings. Should Siltronic AG’s market capitalization fall substantially, WACKER might have to recognize a corresponding impairment on the carrying amount of its equity-accounted investment and this could negatively affect WACKER’s earnings.

Measures: WACKER has numerous measures in place to counter investment risks. Investment projects are subject to a risk management process and their planning is thoroughly checked for completeness and plausibility. Economic feasibility is assessed using comparative studies that look at other plant projects, including those of competitors. Major capital expenditure is approved in stages only. Stringent project-budget management helps minimize or prevent delays.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Our capital expenditures will be slightly lower in 2020. Higher-than-expected investment spending is a risk that is currently considered to be low. Even if this risk did materialize, the impact on our earnings, net assets and financial position would probably be low. Due to our expectations for solar-sector market trends, we recognized an impairment charge of around €760 million on the carrying amount of our production facilities for hyperpure polysilicon in the 2019 financial statements. We consider the risk of further impairments in 2020 to be unlikely. Similarly, we currently view the risk of a negative trend in Siltronic AG’s market capitalization to be unlikely. Were this risk to materialize, it would probably have a medium impact on our earnings, net assets and financial position.

Production and Environmental Risks

Scenario: Risks relating to the production, storage, filling and transport of raw materials, products and waste.

Impact on WACKER: Personal injury; property damage and environmental impairment; production downtimes and operational interruptions; and the obligation to pay damages.

Measures: WACKER coordinates its processes through its integrated management system (IMS). This system regulates workflows and responsibilities, attaching equal importance to productivity, quality, the environment, and health and safety. The IMS is based on statutory regulations, and on national and international standards, such as Responsible Care^® and the UN Global Compact, which go far beyond legally prescribed standards. We focus on securing the highest possible level of operational safety at our production sites by monitoring maintenance extensively and by performing regular plant inspections. We conduct thorough safety and risk analyses, from the design stage through to commissioning, to ensure the safety of our plants. We regularly hold seminars on plant and workplace safety and explosion protection. Every WACKER site has an emergency response plan in place to regulate cooperation between internal and external emergency response teams, and with the authorities. We are insured against loss events at our plants and the potential consequences of such events. Our insurance cover is in line with customary chemical-industry standards. When we work with logistics providers, we ensure that shipments of hazardous goods are always checked prior to loading. Any deficiencies are systematically recorded and tracked.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Experience has shown that risks stemming from the production, storage, filling and transport of raw materials, products and waste can never be completely ruled out. Although there is a general possibility that such risks will occur, we currently consider a serious loss event to be unlikely. Should such an event occur, though, it could have a medium impact on WACKER’s earnings.

Financial Risks

WACKER’s ongoing operations and financing expose it to financial risks. These include credit, market-price, financing and liquidity risks. The Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements provide extensive information about risk hedging with derivative financial instruments.

Credit Risk

Scenario: Customers or business partners fail to meet their payment obligations.

Impact on WACKER: Losses on trade receivables, and failure of banks to fulfill their obligations to WACKER.

Measures: We use a variety of instruments to reduce the risk of any loss on receivables. Depending on the nature of the product or service provided and the amount involved, we may demand collateral. Our preventive measures range from obtaining references and performing credit checks to evaluating payment histories. We limit default risks by means of credit insurance, advance payments and bank guarantees. We prevent counterparty risk with respect to banks and contractual partners by carefully selecting these partners. As a rule, we transact cash investments and derivative dealings with banks whose ratings are above a certain minimum.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: We consider it unlikely that credit risks stemming from customer business will materialize. We consider our risk concentration with regard to bank failures to be low, given our approach to counterparty risk. If bank failures were to occur unexpectedly, their impact on WACKER’s earnings would probably be low.

Currency-Exchange and Interest-Rate Risks

Scenario: Fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates.

Impact on WACKER: Effect on earnings, liquidity, and financial assets and liabilities.

Measures: Currency risks essentially arise from exchange-rate fluctuations for receivables, liabilities, cash and cash equivalents, and financial liabilities not held in euros. The currency risk with respect to the US dollar is of particular importance. WACKER hedges any net exposure above a certain level by using derivative financial instruments. Foreign exchange hedging is carried out mainly for the US dollar. We also counter exchange-rate risks through production sites that are not in the eurozone.

Interest-rate risks arise due to changes in market rates. Such changes affect future interest payments for variable-rate loans and investments. Once an exposure has been identified, interest-rate hedging is performed.

The use of derivative financial instruments requires an underlying operating transaction and is governed by internal regulations.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: We hedge part of our US dollar business. Possible gains or losses from exchange-rate fluctuations are partially cushioned by hedges. From today’s perspective, we consider it possible that exchange-rate and interest-rate changes in 2020 will differ substantially from our planning assumptions. We believe that this would have a medium impact on Group earnings.

Liquidity Risk

Scenario: Lack of funds for payments and tougher access to credit markets.

Impact on WACKER: Higher financing costs and impact on further investment projects.

Measures: Liquidity risk is managed centrally at WACKER. Our Corporate Finance and Insurance department employs efficient systems for both cash management and rolling liquidity planning. To counter financing risks, WACKER holds adequate, contractually agreed long-term lines of credit, and has set aside sufficient liquidity. We invest liquid funds only in issuers or banks that have a solid investment-grade credit rating. Cash pooling means liquid funds are passed on internally within the Group as required.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: WACKER’s liquidity totaled €545.2 million as of the reporting date. At the same time, there were unused lines of credit with terms of over one year totaling €600 million. We consider the occurrence of financing and liquidity risks to be unlikely. At the moment, we see no risks relating to financial-covenant infringements. If financial or liquidity bottlenecks did occur, their impact on Group earnings would be low. If unused lines of credit were tapped, net financial debt would rise.

Pensions

Scenario: Higher life expectancy of those entitled to a pension; pay and pension adjustments; falling discount factors; significant changes in the composition of invested fund assets and capital-market interest rates (low-rate environment).

Impact on WACKER: A rise in pension obligations, a decline in fund assets and a possible injection of financial resources into the pension fund or into the plan assets will affect the financial position and earnings of the Group. Further factors with a substantial impact on WACKER’s equity and earnings are the higher life expectancy of pension-fund beneficiaries, adjustments to pay and pensions, and the discount factor (used to calculate the net present value of a final capital amount).

Measures: A large portion of WACKER’s pension commit-ments are covered by the Wacker Chemie VVaG pension fund, by other pension-related funds and special-purpose assets, and by insurance plans. The investment portfolio is diversified to ensure a sufficient rate of return and to limit investment risks. The pension fund optimizes all asset items so that it attains the required return within specified risk limits. As one of the sponsoring entities, WACKER makes payments to the fund (when necessary), thereby ensuring sufficient coverage for pension obligations. In 2019, WACKER made an additional, special payment of €70.7 million to the pension fund. We periodically adjust the calculation parameters (e.g. life expectancy) for the other defined-benefit pension commitments.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Employee beneficiaries of the pension fund are steadily getting older and capital-market interest rates have been extremely low in recent years. The rate of return will probably be insufficient to fulfill pension obligations in the long term. Our contribution rate remained unchanged in the reporting year. It is possible that, in the future, more special payments to the fund will be necessary, that pension expenses and pension payments will rise further, and that higher provisions for pensions will weigh on the balance sheet. In the medium term, this would have a high impact on WACKER’s earnings, net assets and financial position.

Legal Risks

Scenario: Diverse legal risks related to tax, trademarks, patents, competition, antitrust proceedings, the environment, labor and contracts could arise from our international business.

Impact on WACKER: Drawn-out legal disputes, which could be detrimental to our company’s operations, image and reputation, and which could be costly.

Measures: We limit legal risks by means of centralized contract management and reviews by our Legal department. Where necessary, we also have recourse to external legal experts.

Our Intellectual Property department protects and monitors patents, trademarks and licenses. Before initiating R&D projects, we conduct searches to determine whether existing third-party patents and intellectual property rights could obstruct these projects.

We use compliance programs to limit risks arising from possible legal infringements. WACKER’s Code of Conduct defines and stipulates binding rules of behavior for all employees. WACKER enhances awareness of these issues with training programs.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Due to the varied nature of our business activities, it is always conceivable that legal risks could arise. We currently do not foresee any legal disputes, patent infringements or other legal risks that could significantly influence our business, and consider the probability of such risks materializing to be fundamentally unlikely. Should such an individual case occur, we would expect its impact on WACKER’s earnings to be low.

Regulatory Risks

Energy Transition in Germany

Scenario: Germany’s energy transition policy to achieve the CO₂-reduction targets set for 2030–2050 creates a regulatory environment that is likely to involve repeated legislative amendments, especially in the electricity sector (the German Renewable Energy Act, including relief for energy-intensive companies and self-generated electricity; German regulations governing grid charges for electricity and gas; EU laws on state aid; the EU Energy-Efficiency Directive; national and European emissions trading systems; integrated energy; the hydrogen economy).

Impact on WACKER: Increased energy-cost burden due to higher government-regulated charges and levies, unless energy-intensive industries are exempted to the same extent as before.

Measures: We continually monitor regulatory activity in Germany and in the EU. Whenever we anticipate changes in the current legal situation, we try to introduce our viewpoint into legislative procedures through discussions with policymakers and by participating in the work of trade associations. We also take advantage of market opportunities arising from regulatory changes (e.g. industrial demand-response management).

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Changes in grid-fee exemption and in the calculation basis for grid levies meant that WACKER’s level of relief from grid charges in 2018 and 2019 was already lower than in previous years. We consider it possible that 2020 will see further amendments to legal provisions on energy supply. The impact of such amendments on WACKER’s earnings would probably be medium in the current year, but could increase substantially in subsequent years. In particular, amendments to the EU emissions trading system for phase 4 (which starts in 2021) will be set down in detail in 2020 and show their effect from 2021 onward.

Polysilicon Trade Restrictions

Scenario: Anti-dumping proceeding completed by MOFCOM (Chinese Ministry of Commerce) against polysilicon imports from the USA. On January 20, 2020, MOFCOM decided (following an expiry review) to extend the existing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on US-made polysilicon for another five years.

Impact on WACKER: Negative impact of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on earnings, net assets and financial position; influence on sales volumes; impact on long-term customer relations.

Measures: Despite the US-China trade conflict, we are holding numerous talks with policymakers in both countries to try and mitigate or eliminate punitive solar-sector tariffs (US tariffs on Chinese solar modules and cells, and Chinese tariffs on polysilicon from the USA). In doing so, our aim is to reduce or end Chinese anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs and other punitive tariffs on WACKER’s US-made polysilicon. We also have the option under Chinese anti-dumping law to apply to have the tariffs reviewed individually and, if necessary, have separate tariffs set. This is because WACKER did not, in fact, import any polysilicon from the USA into China during the investigation period of the anti-dumping proceedings. In addition, we have already qualified polysilicon made at our Charleston site with semiconductor customers and will complete further qualifications for semiconductor customers in 2020.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: The USA and China signed phase 1 of a trade agreement on January 15, 2020. Under the agreement, China commits itself to purchase at least US$250 billion worth of US-made goods in 2020 and 2021. This explicitly includes solar-grade polysilicon. At present, we cannot assess if, and to what degree, this will have a positive impact on our sales of US-made polysilicon, since it is unclear exactly how China will implement the agreement. WACKER will not be able to export its Charleston-made polysilicon from the USA to China at competitive terms, at least until the above-mentioned tariffs have been lifted. Given the escalating trade disputes worldwide, we consider it possible that WACKER’s polysilicon business could be affected by further trade barriers and punitive tariffs. The potential impact on our 2020 earnings would then probably be high.

New Regulations for Production Processes and Products

Scenario: Due to new legislation, the production and use of chemical substances is regulated more strictly. New regulations make it necessary to modify our production processes or reformulate our products. They also impose more extensive information requirements on us and, in some cases, on our customers as well.

Impact on WACKER: Additional investments in production facilities, conversion costs, and revenue losses in individual application fields.

Measures: WACKER continually monitors the regulatory environment surrounding its products and production processes so that it can react promptly to impending changes. We are continuously optimizing our production processes. Any other necessary measures will be aligned with the changed regulatory environment in each specific situation.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: It is always possible that new legal provisions necessitate modifications to our product portfolio or production processes. We consider it likely that new legal provisions will require additional investment in our production facilities or changes to our product portfolio. Should such changes occur, their short-term impact on WACKER’s earnings would probably be low. In the medium term, though, they could have a medium-to-high impact.

IT Risks

Scenario: Attacks, system errors and unauthorized access to our IT systems and our production plants and networks, resulting in a threat to data security.

Impact on WACKER: Negative impact on the company’s earnings, net assets and financial position, and on its production processes and workflows; loss of know-how.

Measures: We continually monitor our use of information technology and do everything we can to ensure that computer-assisted business processes function reliably. Our IT-security and risk-management specialists are responsible for handling hazards in a cost-efficient way. Their work is based on ISO 27001. We use risk analyses to define the requirements for our central systems with regard to the availability, confidentiality and integrity of data. We anchor these requirements in service level agreements (SLAs) and continually monitor compliance with those agreements. The deciding factor in configuring our systems for maximum availability is an associated backup and recovery procedure. We have taken appropriate precautions to cover emergency situations (business continuity management).

We minimize project-related IT risks with the help of a uniform method of project and quality management. It ensures that changes are integrated into our system landscape in a controlled manner.

During the risk management process, we log and evaluate any operations-related risks that arise and initiate countermeasures. In 2019, Corporate Auditing analyzed the risk management process and confirmed the accuracy and completeness of processes and structures used at IT and for digitalization. We adopt state-of-the-art hardware and software solutions to counter network downtime, data loss, data manipulation and unauthorized access to our network. Our user-authorization systems are based on the need-to-know principle. We review them regularly and assess any new concepts that reflect advances in digitalization. In order to protect our IT systems against malware, we deploy efficient security software, which we continuously update. We have set up an international security team, which addresses problems involving the confidentiality, integrity and availability of data and systems by introducing organizational and technical measures and by initiating awareness campaigns and training courses. Information events and training on IT security ensure that our employees have the necessary skills to heighten information security at the company. In addition, we regularly conduct comprehensive penetration tests and audits at domestic and international sites.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: There are ever more attempts to disrupt and attack IT systems and networks. It cannot be ruled out entirely that such attacks could succeed in certain cases. A long-term failure of IT systems or a major loss of data could considerably impair WACKER’s operations. Thanks to our precautionary measures, we consider the occurrence of such events to be unlikely. However, if any of our IT systems faced downtime, a service disruption or a hacker attack that affected a significant number of users or lasted for a substantial period, the impact on WACKER’s earnings would be of medium scale.

Personnel-Related Risks

Scenario: Demographic change, lack of qualified technical and managerial employees, and problems in filling executive positions.

Impact on WACKER: A lack of technical and managerial employees could impede our continued growth and cause us to lose our technological edge.

Measures: We limit these risks through our personnel policies. In particular, we have a talent management process in place, which we use to draw up development plans for our employees. In addition, we offer a wide variety of training programs, good social benefits and performance-oriented compensation. We also offer our employees in Germany a wide range of working-time models and arrangements to better balance career demands with the different phases of their lives.

WACKER has a detailed, groupwide succession planning process in place for all key positions in the company, including all positions held by senior executives (OFKs). In its succession planning, WACKER distinguishes between short-term needs (up to two years) and medium-term needs (two to four years). In addition, WACKER has appointed deputies for senior executives in the event of a lengthy absence or illness.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Demographic change will increase the risk of not being able to find sufficiently qualified personnel for technical and managerial positions in the medium to long term. We consider it unlikely that risks to our personnel needs will arise in 2020. Should these risks materialize, the impact on Group earnings would probably be low.

External Risks

Scenario: Pandemic, natural disaster, war or civil war.

Impact on WACKER: Impairment of our company’s capacity to act; supply bottlenecks; production outages; supply-chain disruptions; loss of trade receivables; impact on sales and earnings.

Measures: Our management entities and our sites have prepared and communicated plans and measures to minimize the effects of a pandemic on the health of our employees and on our business processes. Our pandemic-preparedness plan ensures a uniform, coordinated approach. The financial impact of damage to our production plants due to natural disasters is partly covered by insurance. As WACKER has production sites on various continents, it can always ensure a certain degree of manufacturing and delivery capability even if individual plants fail.

Evaluation and Risk Assessment: Risks from pandemics, natural disasters, and acts of war or civil war can never be ruled out entirely. At present, it is not possible to predict how the coronavirus, which first appeared in China, will impact economic trends and global supply chains, nor whether a catch-up effect will arise and to what degree. Since the end of February, the coronavirus has been spreading around the world. Aside from Japan and South Korea, it is increasingly affecting a number of European countries. Capital markets have already seen share prices decline significantly as a result. If the current situation evolves into a longer-lasting pandemic, the world economy could face markedly slower growth and even a recession. If the authorities impose health quarantines or restrict the movement of people and goods, there could be raw-material bottlenecks, production outages and supplychain disruptions. The situation is changing fast. So, we cannot reliably estimate the outbreak’s future effects at the moment. Currently, though, we consider it likely that WACKER could be affected by such risks. Our preparedness plan and our internationally distributed production sites and sales offices help limit the impact of local or regional damage on our business processes. However, we anticipate that the spread of the coronavirus could have a high impact on WACKER’s earnings trend.