There is considerable uncertainty about the future direction of the global economy. The risks of economic activity losing momentum have clearly increased. The sovereign-debt crisis means national governments have less scope to counteract this trend. Growth is becoming noticeably weaker not just in EU countries and the USA, but also in China and other emerging economies. WACKER believes there are two possible scenarios. The world economy will be able to continue growing if sovereign-debt levels and financial-market turbulence are swiftly brought under control and long-term stability is achieved. If this does not happen, the possibility of a recession cannot be excluded.

While financial-market turbulence is likely to weigh on the real economy in 2012, we expect the sovereign-debt crisis to be resolved. For that reason, we anticipate that the world economy will grow in 2012 and 2013.