Uncertainty remains high about the future direction of the global economy. The risks that economic weakness will continue in 2013 are still considerable. The ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in Europe is weighing on EU economies. WACKER, though, anticipates that the downward GDP trend in many EU countries will not continue for very much longer. The US should see its economic output rise relative to the past year. And growth in China and other emerging economies could regain some momentum in 2013. The key task facing the European Union remains finding a solution to the sovereign-debt crisis. That would stabilize economic trends not only in Europe, but also in other regions of the world.

In our scenario, we assume that the global economy will expand slightly in 2013. Stronger growth should then follow in 2014.