Underlying Economic Conditions

Economists agree that the world economy is on track for moderate growth. But the projections involve major uncertainties, since the risks are still high that global growth could be weaker than expected in 2017. The upturn in advanced economies remains subdued, with growth dampened by restrained capital spending and sluggish domestic demand. Low inflation in many countries is also hampering growth, and the continued expansionary monetary policy of major central banks is providing only limited impetus.

GDP Trends in 2017

GDP Trends in 2017 (bar chart)GDP Trends in 2017 (bar chart)

Sources – worldwide: IMF; Asia: ADB; China: ADB; India: ADB; Japan: OECD; USA: OECD; Europe: OECD

According to the International Monetary Fund, global growth will pick up somewhat in 2017 relative to last year. The IMF expects world GDP to expand by 3.4 percent (2016: 3.1 percent). In its view, emerging markets will make the biggest contribution to growth in 2017, with a gain of 4.6 percent. Advanced economies will increase their economic output by 1.8 percent. In China, the risk of an abrupt decline in growth has eased in the near term, since stimulus measures are slowly gaining traction. Experts agree that the expansion in China and emerging Asian countries will continue to lose momentum in the next few years, although overall growth rates will remain high. In the eurozone, growth seems to be continuing at a moderate pace, despite uncertainty about the shape of the British exit from the European Union. In the USA, GDP is also expected to increase in 2017.

Given the latest economic projections, our scenario is for the global economy to advance noticeably in 2017, and we anticipate a similar growth trend in 2018.