Outlook

Despite the many crises and conflicts, economists expect the global economy to continue expanding in the next two years. Much will depend on economic developments in China and how marked the slowdown there is. The steep decline in oil prices, which should have stimulated the world economy, seems to be dampening global growth. Oil- and gas-exporting countries are curbing their investments and expenses. The latest analyses suggest that prices for energy, crude oil and raw materials will remain relatively low. Other factors include the geopolitical crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Overall, the economic and political risks intensified at the start of 2016. The US economy should see further robust growth relative to last year. In Asia, the IMF projection is for growth to slow somewhat in the year ahead. Europe’s recovery, according to the experts, will continue at a subdued pace. In our scenario, we anticipate that the global economy will advance moderately in 2016, and we expect similar growth for 2017.