Underlying Economic Conditions

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects economic growth to slow further in 2026, with growth of only 2.9 percent expected for 2026 as against 3.3 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. The expected slowdown is attributable primarily to the fact that special effects will no longer apply (for example stockpiling effects in production and trading transactions) as well as to the full impact of higher trade tariffs. The OECD expects inflation to fall in most countries. Ongoing trade conflicts and protectionist tendencies, alongside geopolitical conflicts, could put pressure on economic growth. Tight government budgets and sovereign debt levels in a number of countries could also leave their mark on economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting global GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2026, which would be at the same level as in 2025. According to the IMF, the stable overall picture is the result of a balance of opposing forces: trade barriers and political uncertainty are dampening the economy, while technology investments, fiscal stimulus and loose financing conditions are supporting it. The IMF expects global trade volumes to grow at a slower pace in 2026 in an environment characterized by sustained high tariffs and trade-policy uncertainty. It believes that possible corrections on the financial markets (particularly in the technology sector) and commodity price shocks could pose further risks. Both organizations stress that the situation may vary considerably from region to region and country to country.